Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.548067 2.027869 2.669598 3.611148 4.993199e+00 7.007306e+00 10.282768
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.117663 1.668844 2.542786 4.108473 7.033840e+00 1.272002e+01 26.022758
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.836469 1.390316 2.404718 4.582879 9.742156e+00 2.346063e+01 74.112818
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.655539 1.198430 2.333324 5.241567 1.409827e+01 4.826450e+01 291.123291
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.519416 1.031509 2.236639 5.890596 2.032723e+01 1.068957e+02 1822.919241
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.391096 0.825367 1.942809 5.815200 2.495867e+01 2.030470e+02 16347.420658
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.294166 0.650973 1.636766 5.453973 2.849729e+01 3.655976e+02 544612.144839
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.239960 0.559587 1.516301 5.736414 3.853424e+01 9.911580e+02 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.208391 0.514659 1.517383 6.672100 6.219408e+01 5.278726e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.186143 0.486832 1.565947 8.111470 1.129272e+02 9.917271e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.160448 0.437898 1.505571 8.897415 1.781541e+02 2.504325e+07 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.133691 0.375060 1.347431 8.714611 2.294808e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.109253 0.313510 1.168299 8.163241 2.770436e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.096292 0.286931 1.137774 9.106483 5.077653e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.084886 0.261531 1.097001 9.981755 9.575258e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.076193 0.242980 1.081367 11.330777 2.205187e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.068403 0.224931 1.056333 12.653187 5.595388e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.059037 0.197014 0.949791 12.168918 8.778324e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.050515 0.169958 0.831416 11.066563 1.085262e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.045354 0.155642 0.789066 11.551730 2.752464e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.042330 0.149589 0.800336 13.599098 2.279106e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.040162 0.146620 0.833664 16.906082 4.285787e+07 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.037032 0.138022 0.816306 18.659618 NaN NaN NaN